AA Artillery Barrage Hints at Looming Attack on Rakhine Capital as Junta Fortifies Defenses

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Myanmar’s military regime and the ethnic Arakan Army (AA) have been exchanging artillery fire in Rakhine State’s Sittwe Township since Friday, prompting speculation of an impending battle.

Sittwe, the state’s capital and seat of junta administration, is the only town in northern Rakhine still controlled by the regime. In southern Rakhine, its control has shrunk to only two townships – Manaung and Kyaukphyu. The AA has captured the remaining 14 Rakhine townships since launching its offensive in November 2023.

Junta battalions in Sittwe have been firing artillery randomly at neighboring territories held by the AA since December. The AA began responding on Friday and exchanged artillery strikes over the weekend, according to residents.

“The Myanmar military fires volleys of 10 to 20 shells. The AA is responding by firing two or three shells each time from different locations,” a resident told The Irrawaddy.

The shelling can be heard near Sittwe’s border with Pauktaw, Ponnagyun and Rathedaung townships, according residents.

A source told The Irrawaddy that the AA and allies have launched an offensive to capture Sittwe. The Irrawaddy was unable to reach AA spokesman Khaing Thukha for comment at press time.

Sittwe houses around 10 junta battalions, including one regional operations command, battalions of artillery, infantry, and light infantry, and a naval base.

In June last year, the regime forcibly relocated civilians from villages north of Sittwe Township for use as human shields in Sittwe, as AA forces swept through Rakhine. The regime has also reportedly planted landmines around the state capital to prevent civilians fleeing.

One military analyst said: “I think the AA is still trying to pinpoint the regime’s weak spots in Sittwe. They will attack from there.”

Military analysts say it is only a matter of time before the ethnic army captures Rakhine’s capital, having already seized key targets, including Ann – home to the junta’s Western Command – and Maungdaw.

Meanwhile, residents trapped in Sittwe town are reporting shortages of food and medicines, as well as soaring prices. Regime personnel are also carrying out arbitrary arrests, accusing citizens of ties to the AA.

One resident told The Irrawaddy: “Everyone is suffering, and they all hope [the AA] will enter [Sittwe] by the rainy season. They are hoping to see their freedoms restored after the fighting. There is no freedom at all now, and we are going hungry. … We don’t want to get stuck in limbo.”

After capturing 14 of the 17 townships in Rakhine, AA forces advanced over the border into Ayeyarwady, Magwe and Bago regions. However, rising tensions in Sittwe have sparked speculation that the ethnic army is now prioritizing control over the remaining townships in its home state.