Will the Myanmar Military Proceed with Elections in 2025?

Junta boss Min Aung Hlaing previously claimed that his regime is preparing to hold a Myanmar 2025 elections. Min Aung Hlaing has shifted his focus to nationwide “peace and stability” as a precondition to “free and fair” elections.

During the January 31 National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) meeting, which extended the state of emergency for another six months, Min Aung Hlaing stressed the need to end armed conflict and restore peace.

Myanmar has been in a state of political turmoil since the military, known as the Tatmadaw, seized power in a coup on February 1, 2021, overthrowing the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). Since then, the country has been marred by widespread protests, armed resistance, and international condemnation. Amidst this crisis, the military junta, officially known as the State Administration Council (SAC), has repeatedly promised to hold elections to restore civilian rule. However, the feasibility, legitimacy, and intent behind such elections remain highly questionable.

The Military’s Stance on Myanmar 2025 elections

Since taking power, the military has justified its actions by claiming that the 2020 general election, in which the NLD secured a landslide victory, was marred by electoral fraud. The junta initially promised to hold fresh elections by 2023 after imposing a state of emergency, but the timeline has since been repeatedly pushed back. In February 2023, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing extended the state of emergency, citing instability in the country, thereby delaying any potential elections.

In recent months, junta officials have reiterated their commitment to holding elections, with the latest indications suggesting that 2025 could be a possible target. However, these statements have been met with skepticism both domestically and internationally, given the ongoing armed conflicts and the junta’s previous record of delaying elections when faced with resistance.

Challenges to Holding Myanmar 2025 elections

1. Widespread Conflict and Instability

One of the most significant obstacles to holding elections is the widespread armed resistance against the military. Since the coup, Myanmar has seen the rise of various resistance groups, including the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), who are engaged in intense battles with the Tatmadaw. Large portions of the country, particularly in border regions, are under the control of resistance forces, making it nearly impossible for the military to conduct elections nationwide.

2. Lack of Political Freedom

The junta has cracked down on opposition parties, activists, and independent media. Many political leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi and key members of the NLD, remain imprisoned or under house arrest. The military has also enacted restrictive election laws, effectively barring opposition parties from participating. Without genuine political competition, any election held under these conditions would lack credibility and would be seen as a tool for legitimizing military rule rather than a genuine democratic process.

3. International and Domestic Legitimacy Concerns

Any election conducted by the junta is unlikely to gain legitimacy on the international stage. Western countries, including the United States and the European Union, have condemned the military’s actions and imposed sanctions on its leaders. The United Nations has also expressed concerns over the situation in Myanmar. If the military proceeds with elections under the current conditions, it is expected that these elections will be widely rejected by the international community, further isolating Myanmar.

Domestically, the majority of the population remains opposed to military rule. Many citizens continue to engage in acts of resistance, including civil disobedience, strikes, and boycotts. Holding elections in such a climate would not reflect the genuine will of the people but rather serve as a means for the junta to consolidate power.

Possible Scenarios for 2025 elections

1. Elections as a Means of Legitimization

The military might proceed with elections as a way to provide itself with a veneer of legitimacy. By organizing a controlled election in which only pro-military parties can participate, the junta could attempt to create a civilian government while retaining ultimate control behind the scenes. This would be similar to past elections under military-backed regimes, where the military remained the dominant force despite the presence of a nominally civilian government.

2. Further Delays Due to Instability

Given the increasing resistance and ongoing conflict, the junta might once again postpone elections, citing security concerns. The military has already extended the state of emergency multiple times, and there is no guarantee that they will not do so again in 2025 if the situation remains unfavorable for them.

3. Increased International and Domestic Pressure

If the military pushes ahead with elections despite widespread opposition, it could face heightened international sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Domestically, an election that lacks legitimacy could further fuel resistance movements, leading to increased instability rather than the restoration of order.

The question of whether Myanmar’s military will proceed with elections in 2025 remains uncertain. While the junta continues to make promises about holding elections, the reality on the ground suggests that any such elections would be neither free nor fair. The ongoing armed resistance, lack of political freedom, and international condemnation make it unlikely that elections under the current regime would lead to a genuine transition to democracy.

Ultimately, unless the military significantly changes its approach—by engaging in meaningful dialogue with opposition forces, allowing genuine political competition, and ensuring a secure environment for elections—it is unlikely that any elections held in 2025 will bring stability or legitimacy to Myanmar’s political landscape. Instead, they risk being a mere façade for continued military control, prolonging the country’s ongoing crisis.