How Myanmar Civil War Will End: Possible Scenario & Outcomes

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The Myanmar Civil War, which escalated following the military coup on February 1, 2021, has plunged the country into deep political turmoil. With the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) facing resistance from ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), pro-democracy groups, and the People’s Defense Force (PDF), the conflict shows no signs of immediate resolution.

However, various possible scenarios could shape how Myanmar civil war may eventually end. This article explores the potential outcomes and their implications.

1. A Military Victory by the Tatmadaw

One possible, though increasingly unlikely, outcome is a complete military victory by the Tatmadaw. This would mean:

Crushing the resistance: The military successfully eliminating major opposition forces, including the National Unity Government (NUG) and the PDF.
Strengthening authoritarian rule: The junta consolidating power by silencing dissent through arrests, executions, and strict surveillance.
International recognition: Though Western nations oppose the junta, some regional powers, like China and , may continue to support and legitimize a military-led government.

Challenges to a Tatmadaw victory:

The PDF and ethnic armies are gaining strength, with support from local populations.
The Myanmar economy is collapsing under international sanctions.
Growing discontent within the military ranks, with defections and morale issues among soldiers.
International pressure and diplomatic isolation make it difficult for the junta to govern effectively.

Likelihood: Low to Moderate – While the Tatmadaw remains powerful, it faces overwhelming resistance and struggles to fully control the country.

2. A Rebel Victory and the Fall of the Junta

Another scenario is the fall of the junta due to military and political pressure from opposition forces, leading to:

Dissolution of the military regime: Either through internal collapse or military defections, leading to the end of Tatmadaw rule.
Establishment of a democratic government: The National Unity Government (NUG), recognized as Myanmar’s legitimate government by some international bodies, could assume power.
A new federal system: Many ethnic groups demand autonomy. If the opposition wins, Myanmar may transition into a federal democracy.

Challenges to a rebel victory:

The military still holds major economic assets and controls key cities like Naypyidaw, Yangon, and Mandalay.
Ethnic groups may prioritize their own independence rather than a unified Myanmar.
China, Russia, and ASEAN nations may hesitate to support a regime change that disrupts regional stability.

Likelihood: Moderate – Resistance forces have made significant gains, but complete overthrow of the military is still uncertain.

3. A Stalemate Leading to Negotiations

A prolonged conflict could result in a deadlock, forcing both sides to negotiate. This scenario would involve:

Ceasefire agreements: Temporary truces between the Tatmadaw and opposition forces.
International mediation: The UN, ASEAN, or China may broker peace talks.
Power-sharing government: The military and civilian leaders may negotiate a transitional government, similar to the 2010 political reforms.

Challenges to a negotiated settlement:

The Tatmadaw has historically rejected peace talks, preferring force over diplomacy.
Many ethnic groups distrust the military, making a power-sharing agreement difficult.
Pro-democracy groups may reject compromise, viewing it as legitimizing the coup.

Likelihood: Moderate to High – A stalemate could eventually force negotiations, but trust deficits between the warring factions remain a barrier.

4. International Intervention or External Pressure

Global powers and regional organizations could play a decisive role in ending Myanmar’s civil war. Possible forms of intervention include:

Economic Sanctions: The West continues imposing severe economic restrictions on Myanmar’s military-linked businesses.
Arms Embargo: Preventing Myanmar’s military from acquiring weapons from China, Russia, and India.
ASEAN-led Diplomatic Solution: ASEAN may push Myanmar to adopt a peace roadmap.
UN Peacekeeping Forces: Though unlikely, international forces could intervene in extreme cases of humanitarian crisis.

Challenges to international intervention:

China and Russia’s support for the Tatmadaw limits global intervention.
ASEAN’s non-interference policy makes regional pressure weak.
Myanmar’s internal complexity makes foreign involvement risky and difficult.

Likelihood: Low to Moderate – While economic pressure is increasing, direct foreign military intervention is unlikely.

5. Myanmar’s Fragmentation into Separate Regions

A prolonged civil war could lead to the breakup of Myanmar into multiple autonomous regions, including:

Ethnic-controlled territories: Groups like the Karen National Union (KNU), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and Arakan Army (AA) already control significant areas.
Tatmadaw-controlled areas: The military may retain control over key cities and central Myanmar.
PDF strongholds: Resistance forces could establish their own local governance in liberated areas.

Challenges to Myanmar’s fragmentation:

Risk of continued violence and power struggles between groups.
Humanitarian crisis: Ethnic and religious minorities may face mass displacement and persecution.
Economic collapse: Fragmentation could worsen Myanmar’s already struggling economy.

Likelihood: Moderate – Myanmar is already experiencing de facto regional divisions, though full fragmentation is uncertain.

Conclusion: What is the Most Likely Myanmar Civil War Outcome?

While predicting the exact endgame of Myanmar civil war is difficult, the most plausible scenario is a prolonged conflict leading to a negotiated settlement. The military is unlikely to completely defeat the resistance, and opposition forces may struggle to entirely overthrow the junta. Over time, international diplomatic pressure, economic decline, and internal military fractures could force a compromise.

However, the road to peace will be long and complex. The key factors influencing the outcome include:

The unity and strength of opposition forces.
International support or pressure on the military.
The economic collapse and sustainability of the junta.
The role of China, ASEAN, and Russia in shaping Myanmar’s future.

The people of Myanmar continue to resist military rule with unwavering determination. Whether through military, diplomatic, or economic means, change is inevitable. The question is not if Myanmar civil war will end, but when and at what cost.