Shadow War: Bangladesh and U.S. Plan Clandestine Strikes in Rakhine

In a surprising turn in regional geopolitics, credible sources indicate that the Bangladesh Army may be preparing to lead a series of U.S.-backed clandestine operations inside Myanmar’s Rakhine State, amid intensifying conflict between Myanmar’s military junta and powerful ethnic armed groups like the Arakan Army (AA). While no official acknowledgment has been made by either Dhaka or Washington, defense analysts suggest that such operations could serve multiple strategic purposes: counterinsurgency, regional stability, refugee containment, and a soft-power push against China’s influence.

🎯 Strategic Motives Behind the Operations

The situation in Rakhine State has dramatically evolved since late 2023. The Arakan Army has gained control over vast swathes of territory, Rakhine State, weakening the Myanmar military and effectively creating a parallel state in western Myanmar. The volatile border region has become a hotbed of armed clashes, smuggling routes, and refugee movements — all of which directly impact Bangladesh’s national security.

Here are the key motivations reportedly driving this covert collaboration:

• Border Security & National Interest: Bangladesh shares a long and porous border with Myanmar, particularly in Cox’s Bazar and Bandarban districts. The rise in armed activity on the Myanmar side — including stray shells and gunfire crossing into Bangladeshi territory — has escalated Dhaka’s concerns.

• Rohingya Repatriation Stalemate: With over 1 million Rohingya refugees sheltering in southern Bangladesh, Dhaka has been under immense pressure to resolve the crisis. Targeted covert operations could be aimed at shaping the power dynamics in Rakhine to eventually facilitate safe zones for repatriation.

• Counterterrorism & Anti-Extremism: Intelligence reports suggest growing concerns about militant networks using the border region to regroup. Joint efforts with the U.S. could focus on dismantling any such threats before they gain momentum.

• Regional Power Play: Supporting anti-junta forces through limited, deniable interventions might help Bangladesh gain leverage in future negotiations — whether with Naypyidaw, Beijing, or Washington.

🕵️ US Involvement: Quiet Support, Tactical Coordination

While the U.S. has not commented publicly on any operational role, defense analysts point to multiple signs of behind-the-scenes support:

• Increased Military-to-Military Engagement: U.S. diplomatic cables and open-source data show a sharp uptick in covert intelligence sharing, training exchanges, and joint counterterrorism planning between the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the Bangladeshi Armed Forces since early 2024.

• Technology and Reconnaissance Support: It is believed that drone surveillance, satellite imagery, and SIGINT (signals intelligence) are being shared with Bangladeshi forces to monitor developments in Rakhine and bordering zones.

• Logistical and Financial Backing: Through indirect funding channels — including USAID’s non-lethal support programs — the U.S. is suspected of helping bankroll low-visibility operations under the guise of “stabilization and humanitarian protection.”

This quiet cooperation allows Washington to maintain plausible deniability while countering both China’s rising influence in Myanmar and Russia’s arms sales to the junta.

🪖 What Might These Operations Look Like?

Though precise plans remain highly classified, regional analysts outline the likely contours of any Bangladesh-led clandestine operations:

1. Deep Recon and Target Marking: Elite units such as the Bangladesh Army’s Para-Commando Brigade could conduct recon missions across the border to map insurgent locations and junta deployments.

2. Special Forces Raids: Short-duration, high-impact raids on select targets — arms caches, militant strongholds, or even communication hubs — aimed at crippling operations of groups seen as threats to border stability.

3. Psy-Ops and Influence Campaigns: Using covert radio broadcasts or social media to undermine junta influence in areas near the border, possibly encouraging defections or surrenders.

4. Humanitarian Corridors & Safe Zones: Working with select ethnic groups and international partners to secure corridors for refugee return or emergency medical and food relief.

⚠️ Potential Risks and Backlash

While such operations might seem tactically sound, they carry significant risks:

• Retaliation from Myanmar Military: The junta could respond with artillery fire or air strikes near the border, as seen in past skirmishes, risking civilian casualties and diplomatic fallout.

• Complications with China: Beijing has significant economic and strategic interests in western Myanmar, including the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Covert operations backed by the U.S. might provoke a harsh response or increased Chinese support for the junta.

• Internal Political Blowback: Involving Bangladesh in cross-border military activities without a declared war or parliamentary approval could invite domestic criticism and accusations of overreach.

• Humanitarian Concerns: The militarization of the Rakhine border could further delay or complicate Rohingya repatriation efforts, especially if civilians are caught in the crossfire.

🌏 Regional Implications

If true, this development would mark a major shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy posture — from cautious diplomacy to proactive regional intervention. It would also reflect a broader Indo-Pacific strategy where middle powers are increasingly being drawn into the strategic competition between the U.S. and China.

Neighboring countries, especially India and Thailand, are closely watching these developments. India has already increased troop presence in Mizoram and Manipur due to unrest spilling over from Chin and Sagaing regions of Myanmar.

📌 Final Thoughts

The possibility of Bangladesh leading U.S.-backed clandestine operations in Myanmar, Rakhine State signals a new era in South Asia’s military and diplomatic landscape. While framed as a response to border instability and national security threats, such moves could reshape power dynamics in the region.

As Myanmar remains embroiled in civil war and international actors quietly take sides, Rakhine State could become the next focal point of proxy conflict — one where the balance between covert action and diplomatic restraint will determine both regional peace and global perception.

Source: NE News