Evidence Shows the Myanmar Military Junta is Deeply
A U.S. defense expert reveals the Myanmar military junta is facing deep internal collapse, unsustainable war efforts, economic breakdown, and growing resistance. This analysis outlines five key reasons why the junta can no longer win the war.
Dr. Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College based in Washington, D.C., United States, shared several key points during a discussion held at the Thai Parliament titled “Fostering Sustainable Peace and Security: Thailand and ASEAN’s Pathways to Border Stability and Democratic Transition.”
According to him, this is not a winnable war for the Myanmar military. They are excessively fighting a war that they cannot win, and in doing so, they are dragging the entire country down with them. There are five pieces of evidence that demonstrate this war is not winnable for the military:
Overextension of Forces: The military has had to open up multiple battlefronts across the country and spread its forces thin.
Severe Manpower Shortages: The military is facing a critical shortage of personnel. No matter how much they try to ramp up recruitment efforts, they won’t be able to solve this issue.
Breakdown of Logistics and Supply Networks: Previously, the military maintained control over the country through more than 500 bases. Now, many of those bases cannot be resupplied or rearmed. Supply lines are being cut, and the military does not have enough helicopters or air support to sustain them.
Vulnerability of Key Military Industrial Sites: There are 24 key defense production facilities located around the Irrawaddy River. These are now within striking distance of the Arakan Army (AA) and allied resistance forces. Capturing these factories is unnecessary; cutting their supply lines is sufficient.
Internal Fragmentation and Decline: The military is internally collapsing and has become a fractured institution.
Although the military still maintains air superiority, it is not using that advantage for military objectives. Instead, it is using air power to terrorize and harm civilians. The junta is losing resources and has no alternative revenue streams to replenish them. This situation is a direct result of the military’s own brutal actions, which have devastated the Myanmar economy.
In the past, the military had access to many revenue sources. Today, most of those have dried up or are under tight control. Since the coup, the tax system has collapsed. Resource-based income, which was once a primary revenue stream, has been severely disrupted by sanctions and by resistance forces taking control of key resource-rich regions.
Although the military controls two large conglomerates with over 120 companies, they are no longer profitable due to widespread boycotts of military-linked products.
Resistance groups now effectively control large parts of border regions and cross-border trade. While the military has tried to find alternative revenue sources, those efforts are further damaging the national economy.
Increased money printing is causing inflation. The central bank is being used to finance the war effort, which deviates from its intended purpose. Monetary controls and artificial exchange rates may help the military in the short term, but they are damaging the private sector. The junta is selling off state-owned factories and land, essentially looting public assets.
The last remaining revenue sources are criminal in nature—such as scam operations, narcotics, and other illicit businesses. These activities are exacerbating the overall collapse.
As outlined above, the Myanmar military is falling apart. And in their collapse, they are dragging the entire national economy down with them. The Myanmar military is engaged in extreme violence and destruction—but at this point, this war is no longer one they can win.
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